So this week Speaker of the House Joe Tate opened an exploratory committee for mayor of Detroit. Also the Mike Duggan thing happened! Detroit's mayor Is running for governor in 2026-- as an independent...
Folks took to social media to make their predictions about both elections. In just two days, I’ve seen a wide array of feelings: some positive, some negative, and many somewhere in the middle. What however appears to be clear is that we are not all in agreement on what both announcements mean for local politics here in Michigan. In some ways, that's exciting; in other ways its exhausting.
At this very moment, agendas are being set. Very important people are moving resources to their preferred candidate. Grassroots organizers and movement groups are anticipating tougher terrain under a Trump presidency that will likely accelerate incessant war and settler colonialism. And yet, the Democrats are still ill-equipped for city and state elections that will further exhaust working class people.
But what do both upcoming elections mean for Detroit? How might we develop hope and resistance? And who are the folks who are in position to collaborate on a meaningful political project in the coming years? Let’s talk about it!
Population Loss & Why it’s Important
Duggan’s regime has been shrouded in consistent population loss, following earth-shattering events such as the mortgage crisis, bankruptcy, pandemic and emergency management. These material conditions would be major push factors that would continue Detroit’s half-century population decline from a city of just over a million residents to one in the range of 633,218. In 2023, Detroit experienced its first population growth since 1957, rising by nearly 2000 residents.
The demographics and socioeconomic statuses of these new residents is something folks have yet to clarify, but I posit there is room for investigation. Not only has Detroit become an attractive city for large-scale events such as the 2024 NFL Draft, but it's also become more appetizing for suburbanites who have long spoken of “Detroit’s decline.” Just earlier this year, the Detroit Free Press reported that 45% of high-ranking officials in Duggan’s office are not Detroit residents. This along with the boom in mortgage companies and lukewarm tech ventures have created some flashy but fickle opportunities for folks to move back to Detroit.
Population & Realignment
While I won’t necessarily talk much about gentrification here, I do think that longtime Detroiters are feeling that there are still lots of challenges. Our public schools are struggling, our transit network is under-developed, and economic opportunity does not exist for all Detroiters in the way it needs to.
While parks and community centers have been restored, and retail has returned to downtown in small doses, large corporations still make false promises on the backs of working class people. Just this week, James Hohman, Director of Fiscal Policy for the Macinac Center for Public Policy expressed that only 9% of jobs promised in corporate tax break deals have actually come to fruition.
The Mackinac Center for Public Policy is a right-wing think tank that advocates for fossil fuels, free market capitalism, and authored emergency management laws that ransacked majority Black cities In this state. They are by no means advocates for working class people, but they however understand that populism is like gold in the political world right now. We are currently watching a party realignment where: The Republican party now has an insurgent populist branch, the Democratic party is moving farther right to appease large corporations, and the people have soured on the two-party system .
These are realities we are starting to see very clearly in electoral periods. Let’s give a few examples…
This year, 7.98% of Detroiters casted votes for president-elect Donald Trump. This was a 2.96% increase from the previous presidential election in 2020 where only 5.02% of Detroiters voted for Donald Trump. Candidly, I’m by no means an exit poll specialist and think that there are multiple reasons for 6,778 additional voters casting ballots for Trump this year. But one thing that I can observe is that Detroit’s electorate might be changing. Additionally, the role that Detroit plays in broader political conditions is still super important! But let's zoom in to some city political trends!
Voter Turnout
Participation in city elections generally pales in comparison to federal and state elections, but I think there are other factors as well.
Voter turnout decreases in times where folks lose faith in government. Such was true of the presidential election this year where both presidential candidates received less votes, Kamala to much greater extent. But also, this trend can occur to an even greater degree in a localized context, especially if there is population loss.
Year | Voter Turnout |
2005 Kwame Kilpatrick v. Freman Hendrix | 37.1% |
2009 (special election) Dave Bing. v. Ken Cockrel Jr. | 16.3% (*approx as special election might have had less registered voters than the general election later that year) |
2009 Dave Bing v. Tom Joe Barrow | 17.1% |
2013 Mike Duggan vs. Benny Napoleon | 25.38% |
2017 Mike Duggan v. Coleman Young II | 21.81% |
2021 Mike Duggan v. Anthony Adams | 18.6% |
During the political hellscape following Kwame Kilpatrick’s corruption, Detroit slid even further into economic crises while city government became the stuff of early 2000s reality TV. Political dysfunction served as the perfect conditions for Mike Duggan to run a “we need to fix our government” kind of campaign that ultimately granted him the mayorship.
Duggan’s write-in campaign positioned him an an “outsider” and used “we” and “they” narratives to galvanize long-frustrated voters to elect Detroit’s first white mayor since Roman Gribbs in the early 1970s. His campaign was a public soap opera where Mike Dugeon, a barber conveniently also threw his name into the pot for mayor, being framed as a corrupt attempt to keep Duggan out of the mayor’s office. Ultimately Duggan would win and would do so two more times on the city’s biggest stage.
For years we were told that Duggan “the outsider” formed meaningful connections with worship centers, block clubs, and other black elders in the voting class to gain the collective support of the people. He often talks of “house parties” where he talked to people about their desires for the city of Detroit, a tactic often used by grassroots organizers. However, radical changemakers look to his overwhelming support from the Detroit business community as a clear advantage his opponent did not have. At no point did Duggan have to clarify his politics with any level of specificity.
Remember, City Politics are NOT Bipartisan!
Most municipal lawmakers are not bipartisan but present themselves as bipartisan.
City council for example, is the bipartisan legislative body of Detroit, meaning that no council member has to disclose their political party to be elected into office. For the mayor, they can funciton relatively the same, with some nuances based on what higher ranking officials they choose to be in good graces with. Some Detroiters may perceive Duggan as a Democrat because of his consistent partnership with Joe Biden, but he himself does not currently describe himself as a Democrat.
Furthermore the Democratic Party’s realignment has obscured their politics as of late. As of now, the Democratic party is center-right political party at the state level and even more so at the federal level, at least until proven otherwise.
Just this week, Council President Mary Sheffield was in the doghouse on social media for attending a Trump party thrown by the Savaya family--Yes, the same Sheffield who campaigned heavily for Kamala Harris this year. Folks made a big deal out of it, but I just see it as politics. They might be clumsy & concerning politics, but they're politics nonetheless. I'll likely write on it more In depth at a later point.
But that's small potatoes in my opinion. Let's talk about the big one.
Yesterday, Duggan announced that he will be running for the governors seat– as an independent. This news sent shockwaves through the political community who expected him to put his hat in the pot as a Democrat. This decision will allow Duggan to mostly skip the 2026 primary election and preserve his resources (money, connections) for the general election later that fall. But how? How can he make his own rules? It’s simple really.
In city leadership, politicians have a political sheild because they do not have to talk about their party affiliation. This often means that the collective public stays in-the-dark about local politicians until they seek bigger roles in the government. Folks who are organizing and advocating on the ground have more developed analyses of these politicians but these ideas stay insular because of the major media and corporate machines that manufacture consent for their own interest.
This is why some folks are surprised Duggan is not running as a Democrat, nevermind the fact that he has been outspoken about the party and has been a catalysts for major corporations continuously getting their way in Detroit.
Many white Democrats will cling to norms confidently assuring themselves that “independent candidates don’t ever win governor’s races” or that “the Democrats have strong candidates.” These takes come from the same paid professionals who failed to adequately check the temperature on a presidential election where Trump wiped the floor with another “strong candidate.” While I think that Duggan is taking a major risk running Independent, I also think that he is a credible threat from both a narrative and fudraising standpoint. His propserity narrative of “saving Detroit” is one that appeals to white Michiganders.
It is under his decision-making that Detroit has become a more palatable place for white folk. Furthermore, much like his 2013 campaign, Duggan is already leveraging corporate support to secure power during a period of dysfunction and infighting that has soiled politics for the average working class person. You can find him stating this very clearly in his political announcment and his press appearances following It.
So far, we have heard that Lutinet Governor Garlin Gilchrist and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson are likely names for governor’s seat in 2026. Some folks have even mentioned Pete Buttigieg who currently serves as the Secretary of Transportation for the Biden administration.
With such a crowded pool of candidates, the Democrats would be cannibalizing themselves in an August primary, wasting resources that could be preserved for a general election in 2026. The Michigan Republican Party has yet to confirm serious candidates for 2026 but some folks I could throw out for shits and giggles are: Aric Nesbitt, Mike Cox, Mike Rogers, and Tom Leonard–these are merely plausible guesses from the crack of my ass, nothing more.
Duggan Strikes in moments of Political Dysfunction
This November, Democrats lost their trifecta in the Michigan State Legislature. A trifecta is when a political party has a majority in both chambers (Legislature & Senate) of state government and also controls governors seat. This particular Democrat trifecta was the first in Michigan since1983, making it incredibly vital to reverse much of harm that had been done by Republicans In the 2010s. Unfortunately, this majority would not last very long. Two candidates would seek local office during 2024, and multiple seats would be lost in the 2024 November election.
Currently, the Michigan Legislature is in Lame Duck, a period following the election where policies that would not pass under the next regime are pushed through the Legislature and signed by the governor. However, nothing substantial has moved. Local journalists speak of infighting, beef, and cliques that have formed within the Democratic Party. Members of the Legislative Black Caucus hosted a press conference voicing their frustrations about their policies not moving. Progressive Democrats have been called troublemakers and divisive. And the first Black Speaker of the House launched an exploratory committee for the mayorship of Detroit. In 1983, Democrats actually did not have a Lame Duck period, because tensions were so high they couldn’t work together.
In January, the Republicans will have a majority in the Michigan House of Representatives, meaning that both chambers will be split. Generally when this happens, you can expect political gridlock. The only policies that tend to pass are tax breaks, and middle-ground ideas that fail in meeting the needs of working class people.
Folks from movement organizations have expressed disappointment in the Democrats for wasting a trifecta and standing in the way of popular bills that Michiganders need to survive. There are so many progressive bills that have either not been introduced, or not been put up for a vote. These bills cover socioeconomic issues such as: immigrant rights, LGBTQ+ rights, water affordability, renters rights, getting rid of emergency management, and more.
Okay, But What Does "Independent" Mean?
Like many others, I believe that we should divest from a two-party system, and I think such a reality is most obtainable at the local level, where the win numbers are more manageable. Personally, i am not against voting Democrat if it is absolutely strategic, but I will always push for folks to clarify how it’s strategic.
I see a political agenda as the material change we are working towards and the nested actions we take to get there. Some often call this a theory of change. Lesser of two evils might be a fair argument in support of “harm reduction” but I dont think it's a political agenda if it isn't anchored to clear goals that will be obtainable through those means. And in general, we have to do better at giving people real choices and shared decision making power, not just action steps. This starts with being clearer on the politics of folks seeking office.
In working to clarify people’s political affiliations we manage our expectations far better, remaining skeptical until we obtain our demands. Often it means accepting that any politician can be capable of harm if not truly accountable to the people. For this to be the case, maybe we should work outside of both precedent and the illusion of bipartisanship. We tend to make assumptions that bite us in the ass later on.
Politicians are capable of collaboration across values but they are by no means bipartisan. They support what they want to move forward and ignore or suppress what they don’t.
Here are some ways we develop a lens into the political leanings of local lawmakers:
What they Say- Politicians say many things. They often say the following:
What they think the people or press want to hear.
What they think their colleagues want to hear
What they think their boss wants to hear.
What they think corporations and power players want to hear.
Often our role as changemakers is to determine all four of these things based on both the information we have, and new information we obtain through research and action.
What they Do & How they Vote - Both action & inaction are verbs.
Some are drivers who use their influence and resources to get what they want or what residents within their jurisdiction want.
Some lawmakers prefer to get in line! They are on board for popular ideas and cave at the idea of stepping out boldly to endorse any risky ideas or policies.
Some lawmakers are obstructive. They will stand in the way of policy change through either their action or inaction. Often they are accountable to someone else or political aspirations we have to learn more about.
What they Want.
There are some lawmakers who genuinely want the well-being of their constituents. For both your peace of mind and personal learning; always be skeptical of this.
Most lawmakers want a greater political role. Often folks in the school board tend to campaign for city councils/commissions. Often commissioners seek state office. Within state office, the majority of Senators serve in the House of Representatives first. A greater political role can also include lateral movements such as spearheading a corporation or funder.
There’s far more we could dig into in regards to political analysis, but I think that these are some preliminary concepts that help us start to be more thoughtful about folks elected into local office. Behind every vote they make and every policy they introduce are motivations that we should work to understand better.
Detroit Has Changed
Along with the realization that lawmakers’ self-interest isn’t always aligned with our own is the material reality that Detroit is not yet a city that meets its residents’ needs. For the better part of Duggan’s regime we have forfeited tax subsidies and influence to industries that still lay off our people when they see fit.
It’s beyond time for Detroit to reevaluate the use of tax incentives to help facilitate development downtown. ARPA money is drying up, pension payments are about to restart, we don’t have anymore time to experiment with tax abatements and they have not worked.
@PaultheUrbanist - from x
Given that we have not changed course, it suggests that any local candidate must reckon with this challenge. Once per year, residents fill the 13th floor of the Coleman A. Young Municipal Center speaking against large-scale developers who nickel & dime residents for their vanity projects. Despire this pushback, Mayor Duggan leverages hired prosperity preachers and the press to strongarm the council into approving these projects.
Council members consistently fold out of fear of jeopardizing their own political aspirations. And then years later, we are grieving projects that were never delivered to completion. Underneath the band-aid of new city epicenters such as the Hudson Site, are the failures of the past we did not learn from.
The cyclical nature of it all can be so initimading for people: corporations getting their way, politicians enabling it, and the people running on a hamster wheel with little to no returns. I however remind myself that these moments provide opportunities to actviate people. We are able to talk about how our government works, explicitly name its limitations, and ask questions about how we might better address our needs.
And right now, we are asking so many critical questions….
How will rumored candidates engage with these sorts of challenges? Will they forfeit over democracy to corporations and the business community? Will they push working class Detroiters to foot the bill for empty promises? And how will they respond to a Trump presidency that can mean overwhelmingly harmful things for so so many people?
Will Detroit be a sanctuary for undocumented folks and immigrant populations? Will the city reckon with the overwhelming dispossession of black people and create concrete ways to remedy it? Or will we instead continue to build shiny things that trample over our communities?
The reality is…there is alot we can anticipate. There is also alot we do not know. And that’s one thing we must be humble enough to be okay with.
What is Political Meteorolgy?
Months ago, I sat in a weeklong training with Organize the Midwest. The training was a bit preachy for my taste haha but there are some highlights that really have stuck with me in regards to humbling myself.
There an organizer an mentor spoke of “political meteorology.” They expressed that there are many external events that happen in the political arena that are going to occur wether we take action are not. These include but are not limited to: government cycles, elections, and even some spontaneous crises. Our responsibility in changemaking work is to decide which of these actions is worth engaging with and if the actions we take will move us closer to achieving our political agenda.
A meteorologist does not dress you in the morning or fill your car with gas to prepare you for a big storm that weekend. They simply share the events that are likely to happen based on evidence in the natural world. Much like the meteorologist, we are constantly making reads about the world based on the information we have at the moment. Because of this, there is no perfect organizer who has the answers and solutions to all things. We are simply making hunches and then testing their truth through our actions, similar to the scientific method of “if…then…”
So what about local politics? How might we be political meteorologists to weather storms ahead? In this training they pushed us to list off all the potential events that are likely to happen in the external world. Together we did so.
They then asked how many of them we can reasonably expect to influence. This was something that felt uncomfy. A sense of self-importance fostered by nonprofit organizing, made everyone be overly optimistic about how many events we could influence. They challenged us to think farther out, reminding us that the political agendas of next year are already being set privately. It was a reminder that we are not going to radically change events so soon in our calendar, or at least not without a sizeable base of people to do so.
In that instant, folks became far more imaginative, instead discussing leader development and education that can be tested through political actions. This conversation removed people from their mobilizing mindset.
And so I bring this idea up because I think it presents a roadmap to how we might think of these upcoming elections in relation to our immediate lives. For years, folks in the movement community have anticipated a Duggan bid for governor. And additionally, folks have stayed relatively suspicious of several 2025 mayoral candidates’ political motives. This sugget that much of what is happening now is not breaking news to folks who are in action. The challenge is that this information is not as widely distributed as it needs to be for us to influence or build government in real, transformative ways.
It makes me wonder if the work of organizations during these periods is less so to just stop at an issue cut or win number and moreso to consider the amount of people we want to deeply engage and develop over time. Some will tell you that elections are not periods for leadership development, but I have never heard an argument that has convinced me this is true. Much of these notions are presented by “experts” and folks who wield decision making power for others who will actually do the work. Those precedents have proven to be losing strategies if there is not depth, co-governance, and care for how we invite others into action.
Political Meteorology is however not an excuse to disengage from social issues that don’t affect you personally. You must be aware of changes in the world and your local context. You must read the news, talk to folks in your community, and talk to folks with different opinions from your own. By becoming political meteorolgists you are developing both humility and the capacity to stay focused on your goals. Through gaining intel, you become sharper and better equipped to care for your community and others. You are not a guru; you are a person who can be a part of a collective fight towards a better world.
With that being said, open yourselves up to ideas more radical than your own. With any social issue or change that occurs in the world there is a militant tradition that is being suppressed. The more we know that, the better equipped we are to develop the political imagination of not only ourselves, but also our people.
And so I’m gonna do the question thing I always do at the end of these…
What happened this year? Consider: changes in government, world events, world experiences.
What did you do this year? Consider: survival, new risks you took, and risks you wish you could have taken?
What external events are coming up in 2025 and 2026? How much impact do you currently have on those events?
What is something in your neighborhood you would want to see improved? Is it something that you can be a part of changing?
What are loose plans you can make that invite others to collaborate with you in achieving that change?
Peace & Love! And Let’s Grab Crayons,
Kamau Jawara
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